Spatial ecology in a changing world

New article: Using Unplanned Fires to Help Suppressing Future Large Fires in Mediterranean Forests.

New article: Using Unplanned Fires to Help Suppressing Future Large Fires in Mediterranean Forests.

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In a new article published in PLOS ONE, we assessed changes in fire suppression policies and their impact on fire regimes. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire–succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities.

We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000–2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18–22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years.

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change.

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Utilizant els focs no planificats per ajudar a suprimir grans focs futurs en boscos Mediterranis.

En un nou article publicat a PLOS ONE, hem avaluat com canvis en les polítiques de supressió del foc poden afectar el règim d’incendis en boscos Mediterranis. La modulació dels esforços de supressió del foc en períodes de climàtologia beningna es una estrategia debatuda per utilitzar focs no planificats  per reduir el fuel dels boscos i crear oportunitats  per suprimir futurs focs en condicions climàtiques adverses.

Regos A, Aquilué N, Retana J, De Cáceres M, Brotons L (2014) Using Unplanned Fires to Help Suppressing Future Large Fires in Mediterranean Forests. PLoS ONE 9(4): e94906. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0094906



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